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OCTOBER 22,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:25 P.M. ET: 

HOW EMBARRASSING – From Fox:   A new poll shows The National Rifle Association is more popular than the Democratic party's two most prominent members, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  According to the Gallup Poll, 58 percent of Americans surveyed said they have a favorable view of the gun rights group, while 35 percent said they have an unfavorable view...Compare this to recent approval ratings for the president and former secretary of state, who is running for the Democratic nomination for president, and recently announced that she would support tougher gun laws once in office.  According to a Gallup Poll between Oct.19-21, just under 50 percent approve of Obama’s job performance, while 45 percent disapprove. Meanwhile, in a NBC/Wall Street Journal survey of Americans taken Oct. 15-18, 39 percent of those surveyed had a favorable view of Clinton, compared to 48 percent with an unfavorable view.  I'm not a member of the NRA, but I think the public gets it right.

WHAT A FARCE – From Fox:   North Korea reportedly rejected the idea of resuming talks to abandon its nuclear program on Saturday, but said it would welcome negotiations for a peace treaty with Washington.  North Korea’s foreign ministry made the statement one day after President Obama and South Korean President Park Geun-hye said they were ready to open talks with Pyongyang on sanctions if they were serious about dissolving its nuclear program, according to Reuters.  “If the United States insists on taking a different path, the Korean peninsula will only see our unlimited nuclear deterrent being strengthened further,” the North said in a statement.  What sweet words of peace from North Korea.  "Our way or the highway" is the message.  North Korea, having violated the agreements it made with us on its nuclear program, now wants a peace treaty as a reward.  I wouldn't be shocked if the law firm of Obama and Kerry go along.

RYAN IS FORMALLY IN – From NBC News:   Rep. Paul Ryan informed House Republicans late Thursday that he would run for speaker after initially saying he does not want the job.  "I never thought I'd be speaker. But I pledged to you that if I could be a unifying figure, then I would serve—I would go all in," Ryan, R-Wisc., said in a letter to his Republican colleagues. "After talking with so many of you, and hearing your words of encouragement, I believe we are ready to move forward as a one, united team. And I am ready and eager to be our speaker."  Ryan's announcement comes one day after the House Freedom Caucus, an influential faction of conservative congressmen, said they would support Ryan.  The 2012 Republican vice presidential nominee is expected to easily get the support necessary to succeed outgoing House Speaker John Boehner.  Going smoothly for a change.

CAMPUS ETIQUETTE ALERT – From campusreform.org:   The phrase “politically correct” is now a microaggression according to the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.  The university’s “Just Words” campaign is the work of UWM’s “Inclusive Excellence Center” and aims to “raise awareness of microaggressions and their impact”—microaggressions like “politically correct” or “PC.”  Merriam-Webster defines “politically correct” as “conforming to a belief that language and practices which could offend political sensibilities (as in matters of sex or race) should be eliminated.” The university, however, claims that calling something “politically correct” “has become a way to deflect, [and say] that people are being too ‘sensitive’ and police language.” “Politically correct,” moreover, is just one of a whole host of words and phrases the university has denounced as microaggressions.   This is what our colleges have come to.  Students are treated like children who must not be "offended" by anything around them.

October 22, 2015        Permalink

RYAN ROLLS ON – AT 2:18 P.M.  ET:  Paul Ryan is wrapping up his selection as the next speaker of the House.   Maybe a future presidential candidate as well.  From Fox: 

The three House Republican groups that Rep. Paul Ryan said must support him in order for him to seek the speakership have done so – giving the Wisconsin congressman a seemingly open path to run for the job in elections next week.

The latest to support him are the Republican Study Committee and the so-called Tuesday Group. The former represents mainstream House conservatives and claims over 170 members. It said Thursday Ryan is "the right person to lead the House going forward."

The Tuesday Group, which also backed Ryan, represents GOP moderates.

Their support comes after the House Freedom Caucus, which earlier had endorsed another candidate, put out a statement Wednesday saying that the overwhelming majority of its members now support Ryan – though it wasn’t technically an endorsement. Their initial resistance to a Ryan speakership had been his biggest hurdle to running.

Ryan, in initially opening the door to a run, said that he must have broad support from these groups – and if he didn’t, he would stay on as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee and not seek the job being left by retiring John Boehner.

The groups’ support will almost certainly pressure Ryan into the race, and could mean he has more than enough votes to win.

Ryan said in a statement Wednesday night the move by the Freedom Caucus "is a positive step toward a unified Republican team.”

COMMENT:  Unless something goes seriously wrong, and in Republican politics it can, Ryan is in, and should be elected speaker next week.  If he succeeds in bringing at least reasonable unity to House Republicans, he will emerge as a hero.

October 22, 2015       Permalink

YIKES – BEN ROARS IN IOWA – AT 10:15 A.M. ET:  Dr. Ben Carson has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa in the latest poll.  From Quinnipiac.edu:

With a big boost from women, Dr. Ben Carson leads Donald Trump 28 - 20 percent among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with 13 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and 10 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to the results of a September 11 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 27 percent with Carson at 21 percent.

Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 6 percent, with Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent each. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 3 percent undecided.

Carson tops Trump 33 - 13 percent among women. Men are divided as 25 percent back Carson and 24 percent go with Trump.

Trump tops the "no way" list as 30 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants say they "would definitely not support" him for the GOP nomination. Bush is next on this "no way" list with 21 percent.

For 28 percent of Republican Caucus-goers a candidate who shares their values is most important, while 23 percent most want a candidate who is honest and trustworthy.

Carson shares their values, 84 percent of Republicans say, and 89 percent say he is honest and trustworthy, topping the GOP field for both qualities.

"It's Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

COMMENT:  This is a political phenomenon.  It is true that winning the Iowa caucuses is no guarantee of getting the nomination.  But we've seen a steady rise in Ben Carson's numbers around the country.  This is not a local thing.  The race is just getting interesting.

October 22, 2015       Permalink

DUMB AND DUMBER – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:   Every now and then, John Kerry proves to us why he needs an intellectual minder to travel with him and review all his statements before he makes them.  This time the proper Bostonian has really gone over the top.  From IBD:   

Secretary of State John Kerry says that global warming skeptics should be disqualified from "high public office." By all means, Secretary Kerry, let's allow you to unilaterally set the eligibility requirements for elected officials. We'll just turn it all over to you and your astute judgment.

Here's the gaseous statement that elicited our playground response, made Wednesday by Kerry from his Climate and Clean Energy Investment Forum, as recorded by Talk Radio News Service:

"But when I hear a United States senator say, 'I'm not a scientist so I can't make a judgment,' or a candidate for president for that matter, I'm absolutely astounded. I mean, it's incomprehensible that a grownup who has been to high school and college in the United States of America disqualifies themselves because they're not a scientist when they've learned that the Earth rotates on its axis, but they're not a scientist; where they've learned that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, and it does so 24 hours a day; and you can run the list of things that we know science tells us happens, and we accept it every single day.

"And to suggest that when more than 6,000-plus peer-reviewed studies of the world's best scientists all lay out that this is happening and mankind is contributing to it, it seems to me that they disqualify themselves fundamentally from high public office with those kinds of statements."

COMMENT:  Uh, right, John.   I wonder how Kerry determined that these were 6,000 of the world's "best scientists."  Who's a "best scientist"?  In fact, some of the world's leading scientists, including the renowned Freeman Dyson at Princeton, have raised serious doubts about the theories behind "climate change." 

The history of science is filled with mistakes.  It is filled with propositions that have been accepted for generations before being proved wrong.  When I was a student at the University of Chicago I was required to take a course that explored wrong theories.  The purpose, the instructor told me, was to show students "how science proceeds." 

There was actually a serious proposal put forth recently by some scientists suggesting that those who deny climate change be prosecuted under the RICO statutes.  Yeah, let's go back to the middle ages.  Maybe we should put dissenters in dungeons, too. 

How many times in your life have you seen revisions in the preferred treatment of some diseases?  Science proceeds all the time, and sometimes the old, accepted ideas are left by the wayside.

October 22, 2015       Permalink

SHOWDOWN – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton will testify before the House Benghazi committee today.  I have major concerns.

Based on the evidence released so far, Hillary should, logically, have a disastrous day.  And, yes, her day of disaster may still come when the FBI completes its probe of her handling of classified information while secretary of state.  But,in the real world, today's public, televised testimony is important.  Hillary has been preparing for it, and, when she prepares, she can present herself superbly.   Her lack of character is held in check.  She knows how to use television.

I fear that Republicans, to show that they are fair, will give her every advantage.  Apparently, they caved already on the way the questioning will be handled.  In truth, this should have been a classified session, with one or two expert Republican prosecutors doing the questioning.  Instead, it will be a show, with each member of the committee getting a chance to windbag it.  Structures like this always favor the witness.  Congressmen doing the questioning usually use their time to show off to their constituents. 

Trey Gowdy, the committee chairman, is superb, and an expert prosecutor.  But I wonder how he will do against a woman who is profoundly dishonest and fully confident in her ability to deceive people, and even to gain sympathy when she turns on whatever little charm she has.  And how will he do when much of the media will be searching for any "unfairness" in his questions?  And how will he do, considering that the Democrats on the panel have been carefully supplied with talking points by party operatives?

I hope I'm wrong, but I fear today's much-anticipated session will end in a draw, at best.  And that will be seen as a victory for Hillary Clinton.  I hope I'm wrong.

October 22,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 21,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:44 P.M. ET: 

RYAN ADVANCES – From The New York Times:   A strong majority of anti-establishment conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus voted on Wednesday night to support Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin for House speaker, assuring that he will have the votes to secure the post next week and averting a leadership crisis for Republicans.  Mr. Ryan indicated that he was prepared to seize the gavel and try to bring unity to his party, which has been riven over how House leaders exert authority over members. That fight had become so bitter that it forced the resignation of Speaker John A. Boehner and derailed the candidacy of the majority leader, Representative Kevin McCarthy, to replace him.  “I’m grateful for the support of a supermajority of the House Freedom Caucus,” Mr. Ryan said in a statement, referring to the two-thirds vote he received.  Nobody gets everything in politics.  Uniting the party, even if it means some painful compromises, is absolutely essential as we enter a presidential election year.  We must win.  We must win.  We must win.

BIDEN'S SLYNESS – He announced he isn't running for president, but is that the whole story?  From Financial Times:  The sting for Mrs Clinton is that he did not endorse her candidacy. Moreover, he made thinly disguised swipes at her brand of “divisive” politics that spoke of Republicans as “enemies” — a line taken from one of Mrs Clinton’s debate answers. He also vowed to speak his mind “clearly and forcefully” in the coming months. In so doing, he put Mrs Clinton on notice that she would have to earn his support.  Yeah, people are noticing Joe's coolness toward Hillary.  Face it:  If the FBI probe into Clinton goes nuclear, and Clinton is brought down, Joe is waiting in the wings to take her place, without having alienated her base by campaigning against her.

ABC GOES SOFT ON BEN – From Newsbusters:   What’s going on here? Good Morning America, somehow, aired a shockingly positive portrayal of Ben Carson on Wednesday, promoting the Republican as “amazing” and having a “resume like no other candidate.” This is quite a change from ABC’s previous attacks on Carson.  Lara Spencer introduced a “closer look" at the man who “went from being called a dummy in grade school to becoming one of the world's most respected neurosurgeons.” Reporter David Wright enthused, “He has a resume like no other candidate and that's just the start of it. Dr. Carson is full of surprises.”  Maybe they just see him as the alternative to Donald Trump.  Or maybe ABC just got some rare common sense,

JEB IN TROUBLE – From Bloomberg:   A month of extensive New Hampshire advertising on Jeb Bush's behalf has failed to boost his support and likely Republican primary voters there view him as inferior to frontrunner Donald Trump on most key attributes.  A new Bloomberg Politics/Saint Anselm New Hampshire Poll also shows Bush's favorability rating among the state's Republican primary voters has dropped to its lowest level—57 percent—since the survey was first taken almost a year ago.  In the horse race, the former Florida governor has seen his overall support drop to 10 percent, from 11 percent in May. That puts him in third place, behind Trump at 24 percent and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 17 percent, despite an advertising push by the pro-Bush Right to Rise super political action committee that has dominated the state's television screens for the past four weeks.  He was a fine governor of Florida, but the Bush name is hurting him in a Republican electorate looking for anti-establishment faces.  It's too bad, because a lot of good candidates are being bypassed.

October 21, 2015       Permalink

BULLETIN:  BIDEN DECIDES – AT 12:30 P.M. ET:  Joe Biden has just announced, in the White House rose garden, that he will not (repeat not) be a candidate for president.

This gives Hillary Clinton a relatively clear path to the Democratic nomination, barring serious charges as a result of the FBI investigation into her conduct as secretary of state.  If those charges should come down in coming months, the Democrats will be in chaos.

Biden's statement that he will not run was rambling, and seemed poorly prepared.  He did say he thought the Democratic Party should run on Obama's record, which is bad advice, and he did say we can't solve all the world's problems, which, while true, sends a signal of weakness and indecsion.

Biden has always been a generally decent but shallow man.  He's been wrong, and, I think, proved wrong, on the great foreign-policy issues of our time.

Biden's "no" means increased attention to tomorrow's testimony by Hillary Clinton before the Benghazi committee.  It may also mean increased attention to Bernie Sanders, the only candidate who has gained any traction against Hillary in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

However...Biden did outline some things he would do if he were president.  In a way, he left the door open to being nominated should Hillary stumble.  In effect, a draft, not requiring a campaign.

It's Hillary's nomination to lose.  The question is whether she will lose it.   Hey, you never know. 

October 21, 2015       Permalink

TRUMP TRUMPS – AT 10:33 A.M.  ET:  A new ABC poll shows Donald Trump still leading, and showing great strength.  From ABC News: 

Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, not only in vote preferences but in expectations as well -– a remarkable feat for the non-politician who’s surprised the GOP establishment with his staying power as well as his support.

Trump has leveled off with backing from 32 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote, easily enough to retain his frontrunner status. Fellow outsider Ben Carson follows with 22 percent, also flat this month after sharp summertime gains.

Notably, even more leaned Republicans -- 42 percent -- say they expect Trump to win the GOP nomination for president. And given a list of six potential nominees, 43 percent pick Trump as having the best chance to win the general election just more than a year from now.

Trump also fares well on many key attributes. Nearly half of leaned Republicans -- 47 percent -- view him as the strongest leader; 39 percent think he'd be best able to handle immigration; 32 percent feel he is closest to them on the issues; and 29 percent say he “best understands the problems of people like you.” In each case he leads the other top-five contenders for the nomination, Carson, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina.

Trump has weaknesses nonetheless. More view Carson as the most honest and trustworthy (33 percent vs. 21 percent for Trump), and Trump trails Bush in having the best experience (31 vs. 23 percent). While 19 percent say Trump has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president, that compares with a similar 24 percent for Carson.

COMMENT:  It's far from over.  I'm guessing that Trump, despite his apparent staying power, will stay at the level he's at.  Please note that three quarters of Republicans do not support him.  As other Republican candidates drop out of the race, I'm hoping their backing goes to the GOP's best hope in the general election.  In my view that is Marco Rubio. 

I really don't think Trump can win a general election.  All those absurd and offensive statements he's made are on tape, and will be used against him.  He's far from an adequate debater.  He rarely knows his facts.  And the press will overwhelmingly try to help Hillary. 

The real political season only began last month.  Time may shake up this whole race.  

October 21, 2015       Permalink

ELECTIONS MATTER – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  The British Labour party recently elected the most extreme left-wing leader in its history.   The election created an uproar in the saner ranks of British politics.  But the left will not be denied, and it always acts like the left.  From the Times of Israel:

UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has appointed controversial figure Suemas Milne as his director of strategy & communications, the Telegraph reported.

Milne has in the past praised the “resistance” against British troops in Iraq and has justified terror attacks against Israel.

Milne, a regular contributor to the Guardian newspaper, wrote in a 2004 article that Iraqi terrorists were the country’s true liberators and called their attacks a “resistance war.”

During an anti-Israel rally in 2014, he said Israel had no right to defend itself from Gaza terrorism, claiming the state continued to occupy the Palestinian territory.

“It isn’t terrorism to fight back,” he said of attacks from Hamas against Israel. “The terrorism is the killing of citizens by Israel on an industrial scale.”

Following the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York, he wrote that the US had brought the tragedy upon itself through its actions in the Middle East.

Corbyn himself has also been criticized for claiming that it was a “tragedy” that bin Laden had been killed before he could stand trial for the 2001 attacks.

COMMENT:  Nice, huh?  I wonder if the fashion plates among British and American "intellectuals" will have much to say about this. 

It's highly unlikely that Corbyn could become prime minister, but it's not impossible.  The very fact that Britain's second largest party is headed by an idiot fanatic is a nightmare itself.

October 21, 2015       Permalink

HILLARY'S LATEST LIE – AT 8:46 A.M. ET:  I guess she just can't control herself.  In an age when college students are taught that a lie is simply an "alternative narrative," Hillary makes full use of our slipping moral standards.  From the Washington Examiner:

Hillary Clinton's closest advisors and top fundraisers include drug and insurance lobbyists. Clinton fought hard to force everyone to buy health insurance, and to force employers to cover all contraceptive costs through insurance. Her donor rolls include Big Pharma PACs, and drugmakers have paid her six-figure speaking fees.

Yet Clinton claims the insurers and the drugmakers are her enemies. It's no wonder so many voters don't trust her.

Anderson Cooper, the CNN moderator, asked candidates in the first Democratic debate, "Which enemy are you most proud of?"

After her rival Martin O'Malley said, "The National Rifle Association," to applause, Clinton answered, "Well, in addition to the NRA, the health insurance companies, the drug companies, the Iranians. Probably the Republicans."

No one is surprised that Clinton considers 40 percent of the country her "enemy" because they vote against her. But her claim of mutual enmity with the industries that have long supported her strains credulity for anyone who has followed her career.

When she ran for president in 2008, Clinton raised $696,420 from "health services/HMOs," according to the Center for Responsive Politics. That was the most any politician in history had ever raised from that industry. (Obama, as the nominee, would ultimately break Clinton's record later that same election). Her 2006 Senate re-election had brought in $183,770 from the HMO industry, which at that time was also a new record haul from that industry.

In 2008, Clinton raised $345,234 from the "pharmaceutical manufacturing" industry, according to CRP, far more than any Republican candidate raised in that election.

COMMENT:  I guess it's true – Hillary is the second coming of Richard Nixon, complete with an enemies list.  At least the people on Nixon's list had never actually helped him or written checks to him.

Joe Biden, in an obvious jab at Hillary, commented yesterday that you can't get anything solved if you start designating opponents as "enemies."  If he runs, he will obviously portray Clinton as a divisive, shrill individual.  He'll be right.

October 21,  2015     Permalink